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Player Props: Cam Akers over Needless to say, I love running back Cam Akers in this game. Akers is averaging Akers is averaging 4. He should be able to hit 15 receiving yards on two receptions, though he could very well get there with just one. I am also placing a small bet on Akers to go over 2.
After all, the Packers just gave up nine receptions for 63 yards to David Montgomery , but Akers only needs three receptions for 15 yards to hit both of his props. Malcolm Brown, on the other hand, could hit the over on his rushing yards on two carries. Darrell Henderson is not going to play so that just leaves Akers and Brown as the only guys in the backfield.
Brown had nine carries last week and should see a similar number this week, plus he has hit this number in three straight games and every game this season that he had had at least four carries. So hammer that over. It is because of this brutal matchup that his numbers are so low, and I am not buying it. Adams has failed to hit seven receptions in only four games this season, one of which he left early due to injury, and one of which was his first game back from said injury.
I also expect the Packers to move Adams around to get him off Ramsey's coverage as often as possible. Additionally, Adams has the advantage in this matchup because Ramsey is a physical corner that presses at the line of scrimmage and sticks with receivers on their routes, but Adams specializes in getting separation off the line of scrimmage with his lightning-quick feet so cornerbacks never have an opportunity to track his movements.
Before the cornerbacks can even get a hand on him, he is in the middle of his route and the ball is already in the air. Adams is averaging He has done it six times this season, which is remarkable, and when the Packers get into the red zone, Rodgers looks to his most reliable weapon. Lastly, since I think the Packers win this game, I am going to bet the Packers to score first and win the game at plus odds.
Spread : BUF If this game were being played in a dome I would lean to the over, but the elements should slow down these teams enough to finish slightly under. Either way, it is too close to call. I like the Bills in this one, but it should be a very close game so I prefer taking the money line instead of the spread. The Bills are at home this season, including last week's Wild Card game, losing only to the Chiefs in Week 6, but they are when playing at home as a favorite.
Fortunately for them, the Bills find themselves as a home favorite on Saturday night. Further, the Ravens are an impressive on the road this season, including last week's Wild Card game, but they are when playing on the road as the underdog.
Unfortunately for them, the Ravens find themselves as the road underdog this week. If it snows, the advantage swings even more in the Bills' direction as Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson told reporters this week that he has never played in the snow and he does not want to start on Saturday night.
The main weather concern for the Bills is the wind, which is expected to reach 15mph because heavy wind usually leads to a heavy rushing attack and there is no debate that the Ravens are the superior rushing team. Josh Allen has taken this Bills team to heights not seen for three decades, and it feels like the momentum is entirely on their side. Unfortunately for the Ravens, there are no weaknesses on the Bills' offense and it is firing on all cylinders at the perfect time.
They have an elite wide receiver in Diggs and three very talented supporting receivers in Cole Beasley , John Brown , and the explosive rookie Gabriel Davis. Allen has shown tremendous growth this year as a passer and is still just as deadly with his legs, so the Ravens are going to have a hard time limiting his production. On the flip side, the Ravens have to get out to an early lead if they want to come away with a victory because they are one of the worst teams in the league at coming from behind in the second half under Lamar Jackson, and Jackson is still quite limited as a passer.
He prefers to operate in the middle of the field, and defenses that have forced him to throw outside have had success in stopping him. Fortunately for him, the Bills Defense is the most vulnerable in the middle of the field. The bottom line for me is that the Ravens have one game plan to win this game, by running it a ton with Jackson and J.
Dobbins and getting out to an early lead. The Bills, however, can gash the Ravens on the ground or threw the air, and have the quarterback and the firepower to come back from a big deficit in a short amount of time. I like the Bills to win after a failed two-point conversion by the Ravens to tie the game.
Player Props: Lamar Jackson over The Bills are also extremely susceptible to the run, finishing 17th in rush yards allowed. I am not a fan of Jackson's passing yards prop, however, because his increased rushing volume and significantly inhibited his passing production. As you can probably tell, I hate betting unders because it is no fun rooting for no production, but I am going to make an exception for this one.
Over his last nine games, Jackson has gone over this total twice, and since his return in Week 13, he has only surpassed this total once, which came in a bludgeoning of the Jaguars. I am also a huge fan of Andrews this week because the Bills have been awful at stopping tight ends, allowing the most receptions and second-most yards to the position this season. Andrews has also surpassed this total in five out of the last seven games, and he should lead the team in targets this week with cornerback Tre'Davious White expected to shadow wide receiver Marquise Brown.
As for the Bills, I am betting the over on Allen's rushing yards prop in every game from here on out. Running back Zack Moss is injured and out for the season with an ankle injury, so I expect a few more designed runs for Allen, especially in the red zone. Further, the Ravens blitz the quarterback more than any other team He should also be good for at least one rushing touchdown in this contest because in the absence of Moss, they have a much better shot at punching it in for a touchdown behind 6'5" Allen over 5'7" Singletary when they get near the goal line.
Speaking of Singletary, his lines are way too low. He is averaging 4. The absence of Moss should lead to Singletary seeing between carries and five to seven targets, making his rush yards prop his absolute floor and his 2. Last week, Moss and Singletary caught seven balls between them, and this week Singletary has this backfield all to himself.
I am avoiding the spread and the total in this game like the plague. The Chiefs are obviously a heavy favorite, but the Browns are cooking with gas right now and I think 10 points is too many to lay. That being said, the Browns losing by three scores is also firmly within the range of outcomes for this game, so the wise move is to avoid the spread entirely.
The same goes for the total. However, the public keeps betting the over, and we could see this game finish in the '70s if both defenses stay home. Therefore, I am only betting player props in this game and my favorite is Jarvis Landry's receptions.
Landry is quarterback Baker Mayfield 's favorite target and he has had at least five receptions in six straight games. Last week, Landry finished with five receptions in a game the Browns were in full control of the entire time. This week, the Browns are going to have to throw early and often in order to keep up with the Chiefs, and that means even more volume for Landry who has seen at least eight targets in five of his last six games.
I wouldn't be surprised if he goes over this total before halftime. This could be a catch game for Landry. Other Player Props: Patrick Mahomes over 2. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes average There is no doubt that Mahomes is going to light it up on Sunday, and this line is 35 yards below his average over his last eight games PG.
The Chiefs running game has been stagnant so you can safely expect them to lean on the golden arm of Mahomes to get them to another Super Bowl. I like him for yards and three touchdowns this weekend. Next, if we love Mahomes, we have to love Tyreek Hill against this porous secondary.
Mahomes will take a few deep shots to Hill and he just needs to catch one to feel safe about him going over He has failed to go over both of these totals in his last four games, but he faced A. Bouye, Xavien Howard, and Marshon Lattimore in three of them. I expect the Chiefs to try and get Hill back on track for another Super Bowl Run and it starts this week against a pitiful Cleveland secondary. Don't be surprised if Mahomes takes a deep shot to Hill to open the game and they connect.
On the Browns' side, all the love this week goes to the passing game. Mayfield is going to have to have an epic performance if the Browns want to compete in this one, and two touchdowns should be his absolute floor. Plus, knowing the competitive fire and swagger that he plays with I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to go shot for shot with Mahomes in this one. As a result, tight end Austin Hooper should also see a ton of volume in this matchup, and his prop of 3. I would have made Hooper the best bet, but the odds are not very enticing.
But make no mistake about it, this line should cash before halftime. The last prop that I am betting on Browns' side of the ball is Kareem Hunt to score a touchdown. The Browns love to use Hunt at the goal line, and there is the added incentive to get Hunt in the endzone against his former team who, in his mind, gave up on him. The Browns need to score a ton of points if they have any hopes of winning this game, and Hunt has scored in three of his last five games. When you add in the revenge game narrative, I love his chances of hitting pay-dirt on Sunday.
Spread : NO Sunday night's divisional affair is too close to call. As a result, I do not see any lines that I'm comfortable betting. The Saints swept the Buccaneers in the regular season, but this team is playing lights out over the last few weeks and Brady in the playoffs is a different beast entirely. Vegas has nailed the spread as the Saints are favored but, would have to win by more than a field goal to cover. The total is also perfectly set as this should be a high-scoring affair, but both teams have a top-five defense which could limit this game from becoming a shootout.
I honestly have no clue which way this one will go, so we don't make a bet. If forced to choose, I would lean toward the Saints to win because this is Drew Brees ' swan song, but you can never count out Brady in the postseason. Player Props: Jared Cook over 2. The Buccaneers were the best defense at stopping the run, only allowing Further, Taysom Hill and Latavius Murray are expected to be out which takes away a handful of designed runs and keeps the ball in Brees' hands.
Jared Cook's reception total is a meager 2. He has surpassed this number in five of his last six games, and he has seen at least five targets in four of them. Michael Thomas should be double-teamed and Kamara used predominantly in the run game without Murray, so I expect Cook to be a favorite target of Brees, especially on third down and in the red zone.
Three receptions is such a small threshold to hit that I'm going to bet he gets there. The other prop I like is Chris Godwin to go over Godwin has had at least seven targets in his last three games and he has caught five balls each time. Normally, I would be all over his receptions total, but it sits at 5.
Therefore, we are going to bet his receiving line. When you look at Godwin's season, he is averaging Now take a look at his lines again. Funny how that works huh? However, if you dig a little deeper, Godwin has averaged So right around the time the offense started clicking, Godwin became far more productive with his catches and averaged Now his line of Add in the fact of Evans' injury and bad matchup, the unknown status of Ronald Jones II , and the Saints top-four defense at stopping the run, Brady is going to have to win with his arm, and Godwin should be his favorite target.
When the lines seem too high, it begs for a teaser on the underdogs. The Rams Defense is elite and it very unlikely that that lose by two touchdowns. Some even think they can win the game outright. On the flip side, the Browns are averaging 30 points per game over their last eight, and the Chiefs are allowing 26 points per game to opponents over the same stretch. The Browns offense is playing too good right now to lose by more than two touchdowns and a field-goal.
I will take that spread all day. Player Prop Parlay: Malcolm Brown over We continue with our evaluation of the dynasty league value of high-profile players in our Dynasty Price Check series. Should you trade them or trade for them? Are they being overvalued or undervalued by dynasty players? Read More. Mick Abel. Austin Hendrick. Cade Cavalli. Patrick Bailey.
Aaron Sabato. Garrett Crochet. Pete Crow-Armstrong. Garrett Mitchell. Justin Foscue. Tyler Soderstrom. Dillon Dingler. Cole Wilcox. Jared Kelley. Ed Howard. Bryce Jarvis. Nick Loftin. Bobby Miller. Jared Shuster. Carson Tucker. Tanner Burns. Slade Cecconi. Nick Bitsko. Carmen Mlodzinski. Isaiah Greene. Cole Henry. Kyle Nicolas. Clayton Beeter. Chris McMahon. Austin Wells. Masyn Winn. Justin Lange. JT Ginn.
Jordan Westburg. Carson Montgomery. Drew Romo. Casey Martin. Daniel Cabrera. Jordan Walker. CJ Van Eyk. Jared Jones. Alika Williams. Alex Santos. Gage Workman. Victor Mederos. Freddy Zamora. Dax Fulton. Jeff Criswell. Burl Carraway. Dylan Crews. Nick Frasso. Blaze Jordan. Petey Halpin.
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