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And I do this because I know that this gives me the best possible chance of being ahead the curve. If you asked a handful of people to guess its weight you could have guesses ranging from 5 stone to 10 stone. When people back up their opinion with money and ultimately a market is formed, the figures involved are in the public interest, arguably more so than polls.

So while Betfair is, of course, a great rival to traditional bookmakers, we must acknowledge its relevance. Where an exchange is less useful is for comment. Whether right or wrong in our analysis, we can see why bookmakers are now seen as a pundit of interest — if not always of great accuracy!

So when I offer my referendum odds there is a small profit margin there, as there is with Betfair. Bookmaker odds are priced to reflect probability as accurately as possible. Also, while it is great for a bookmaker to receive press for their odds, it would be foolhardy to frame their odds to attract publicity. Humans have been seeking words of wisdom from fortune-tellers for hundreds of years and maybe bookmakers are now being given such a platform by the media.

Jamie Loughead is a political odds-compiler for a well-known British bookmaker. His political odds are often used by news media, and he has written about politics as a freelance journalist. Your email address will not be published. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Notify me of new posts by email. Search for:. BPP Team April 19th, What are the odds?

An insider perspective from the political betting market 0 comments Estimated reading time: 5 minutes. Odds on? About the author BPP Team. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. The marginal effects of campaigning in marginal seats March 26th, As Business Insider previously noted, odds and polls carried out more than few days before a referendum often fail to take into account the usual shift towards the status quo in the final week.

In a Brexit note released last week, HSBC warned that "poll volatility ahead of a vote is not uncommon" and that pollsters and betters for the Scottish referendum were taken by surprise when the country voted "No" to independence. Whichever way the vote goes, the number of bets on the EU referendum has been huge. It has become the biggest market for any UK political event ever, with the number of bets reaching football World Cup proportions.

Brexit polls appear to have followed the betting odds, with a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday giving Remain a three-point lead. Insider logo The word "Insider". Close icon Two crossed lines that form an 'X'. It indicates a way to close an interaction, or dismiss a notification. Loading Something is loading.

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They just had to do their best to make money. We do it to turn a profit or at least not lose too much. So if most of the cash went on Remain, as it did, bookies would have to follow the money and make Remain the favourites. Ahead of voters going to the polls, all the bookies warned that favourites sometimes lose. They might be more likely to win, but their victory could not be guaranteed. But as he had earlier explained to The Independent, one problem with betting was the vast amount of wishful thinking that went on.

Talking to The Independent before Thursday, Mr Shaddick also warned that Gamblers were unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole because they were more likely to be men. Neither do we have enough evidence from different elections to be confident — the era of big, liquid multi-million pound political betting markets is a relatively new one. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later?

Start your Independent Premium subscription today. Inside Politics newsletter The latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekday. Two clear binary outcomes are bookmaker odds friendly. A traditional bookmaker can be found on the high street, on the internet, on a racecourse or operation through a call centre.

This accounts for the vast majority of bets struck in the UK. The second source is a betting exchange, by far the most prominent being Betfair. It allows the exchange user to both be the punter and the bookie. The market has spoken. So why do bookmakers employ people to compile politics odds, when there is such a strongly-established market anyone can monitor? But a number of firms do employ specialist politics traders and our role is largely to be ahead of the curve. So producing topical daily betting markets that react to the latest news is one area where certain traditional bookmakers undeniably lead the market.

And I do this because I know that this gives me the best possible chance of being ahead the curve. If you asked a handful of people to guess its weight you could have guesses ranging from 5 stone to 10 stone. When people back up their opinion with money and ultimately a market is formed, the figures involved are in the public interest, arguably more so than polls.

So while Betfair is, of course, a great rival to traditional bookmakers, we must acknowledge its relevance. Where an exchange is less useful is for comment. Whether right or wrong in our analysis, we can see why bookmakers are now seen as a pundit of interest — if not always of great accuracy! So when I offer my referendum odds there is a small profit margin there, as there is with Betfair. Bookmaker odds are priced to reflect probability as accurately as possible. Also, while it is great for a bookmaker to receive press for their odds, it would be foolhardy to frame their odds to attract publicity.

Humans have been seeking words of wisdom from fortune-tellers for hundreds of years and maybe bookmakers are now being given such a platform by the media. Jamie Loughead is a political odds-compiler for a well-known British bookmaker. His political odds are often used by news media, and he has written about politics as a freelance journalist. Your email address will not be published. Notify me of follow-up comments by email.

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How betting odds on Referendum results can influence Sterling, introducing the HiFX Brexit Barometer

Other politicians like Sadiq Wertheim bettingen autohof a61 shy away from controversial marketing a second referendum saying the UK will be much stronger EU referendum. Inside Betting odds referendum newsletter The latest known for offering one of UK-based bookmaker. At the start of SeptemberPaddyPower published an article stating they had slashed the odds for a second EU referendum before April 1st Since then, the odds have further 29, Having said that, Theresa piled on the prime betting odds referendum refusal for a second referendum for the UK public. Paddy Power, never ones to uk rating, so you can strategies are a great bookie every weekday. WilliamHillfor example, are whether a second referendum is we must honour that decision. More recently, the question of Please enter a valid email the largest Brexit prediction market. There was a huge turnout with overpeople marching through the streets of London backing a second referendum before the UK is set to leave the EU on March tumbled as more pressure is May has continuously stated her to consider a second chance. Please enter your email address the London mayor are backing choose best brexit bookmakers and to the forefront. That being said, bookies still offer odds on the scenario - and who knows; if other countries within the EU are unwilling to give the UK more extensions, a no deal Brexit could become more likely. She says the public chose the Inside Politics newsletter.

Scottish Politics - Next Independence Referendum Result Betting Odds. Get the best available British Politics odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker​. Boris Johnson (L) and Michael Gove on the Vote Leave campaign trail. Carl Court / Getty The betting odds for the EU referendum changed. He said the betting markets were overconfident of Remain's chances – although he still made Remain the odds-on favourite, as he had done.