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Financial markets are supposed to be great aggregators of dispersed information. So what about election betting markets? It seems like the prediction markets are informed more by hobbyist enthusiasm than political reality. In order for a financial market to work efficiently, you need depth and liquidity. That is, investors need to be able to get their money in and out, buy in large quantities with low transaction costs, and turn a small piece of knowledge into a large profit.
Those features make it worthwhile for savvy market participants to respond when prices are out of whack. Even if the price is just a little bit off from where you think it should be, you can make big bets that will produce a substantial payout if things move your way. But if you know better about an election than other participants in an election-prediction market, what good does that do you?
But because there are regulatory limits on how much money U. And elections are infrequent. But then what do you do after you win? In the stock market, such hobbyists usually get steamrolled by more dispassionate investors though Tesla kind of looks like a hobbyist-driven stock , but in the election markets, without professionals against them, they are likely to just drive the price up until Election Day.
None of that is to say that the polls are necessarily correct, or that Trump cannot win. I just would not assume there is any particular wisdom in the prediction markets. The TikTok deal— which had been driven by then-President Donald Trump —has languished since last fall in the midst of successful legal challenges to the U.
Discussions have continued between representatives of ByteDance and U. Those discussions have centered on data security and ways to prevent the information TikTok collects on American users from being accessed by the Chinese government, they said. The hearing, scheduled for Feb. The virus that causes Covid most likely jumped from one animal to another before entering the human population and is highly unlikely to have leaked from a laboratory, a leader of a World Health Organization investigative team said at a news conference in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
But the team said the most likely scenario was one in which the virus spilled over naturally from an animal into humans, such as from a bat to a small mammal that then infected a person. Did we add details to that picture? Neal D-Mass. Joe Manchin D-W. Compared to prior plans, Democrats are accelerating the rate at which the benefit declines for higher-earners, a move intended to prevent wealthy Americans from receiving stimulus payments.
John Fetterman, the tattooed, 6-foot-8 Democrat, better known for wearing Carhartt and Dickies gear than a suit and tie, has been a media sensation for years. His high profile has helped him build a fan base of grassroots donors. Already a subscriber? His role involves the evaluation of where the EIS can improve the health of their athletes, including the assessment of training strategies, athlete tracking, and use of equipment by working alongside the sports and coaches.
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