I will continue to update all of this results as the season progresses so long as profitable betting patterns can be uncovered. Please comment with your thoughts on this data, and let me know if you have any questions, or different angles on patterns you might be interested in seeing. To receive an upvote send 0. All posts. Communities Feedback. Amaze Creater Union. Steem Venezuela. Steem Bangladesh. SteemWomen Club. Explore communities…. Betting Results using FiveThirtyEight. Each of the teams between These teams were at Home and on the Road.
Model suggests betting all teams between As suspected, the difference in projections are less apparent in the first roud. Charting the relative predictions for each game shows that, in the first round, the differences between models are more or less random, and clustered around zero. This makes sense, given the Florida Gulf Coast example above. As this suggests, looking at only games in the first round, the models fair similarly.
The chart below shows the same buckets as before, but only includes first round games —and in this case, the model predictions are more closely aligned. But this does raise an interesting question: If FiveThirtyEight predicted every matchup at the start of the tournament, how would their results look? In other words, if we level the playing field, should I bet on Nate Silver or the true kings of sports forecasting—the oddsmakers? Data was collected from FiveThirtyEight and calculated using Vegas odds.
All analysis, data, and visualization code can be found in Mode. The graphs are backed by Variance , an excellent new visualization library. Try it now. You come at the king, you best not miss. Mode Analysis.
General Webinar recap: Datasets that we wanted to take a second look at in See all articles.
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|Explain nhl betting lines||I used the FiveThirtyEight line to decide which team to hypothetically place a fivethirtyeight sports betting on to beat the spread. It turns out we're not even close to predicting the next catastrophic earthquake or the spread of the next killer bird flu, despite the enormous amounts of brainpower trained on these questions in the past few decades". Archived from the original on November 26, How to bet to win in football bitcoin, nba bitcoin expert picks winners and whiners Nba bitcoin title odds fivethirtyeight, Bitcoin sports betting, Dota 2. He barely slept the last couple weeks of the campaign—'By the end, it was full-time plus'—and for that matter, he says he couldn't have kept it up had the campaign lasted two days longer.|
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ET Sunday. Although Ravens-Patriots is the highest-quality game of the week based on Elo alone, both of those teams are all but assured of playoff spots already, which reduces the stakes a bit. The game that best mixes playoff importance, team quality and matchup closeness, then, sees the Vikings and Chiefs square off at Arrowhead Stadium.
With Mahomes almost certainly sidelined for another week , K. The Chiefs rely heavily on Mahomes, and Elo downgrades them to an average team without him, but Andy Reid also has enough coaching tricks up his sleeve to keep Kansas City competitive until the reigning league MVP returns to action. As for the Vikings, they rank fourth in Elo and seventh in our Super Bowl odds, with Kirk Cousins playing quite well over his past four games.
Biggest playoff implications: No. Deshaun Watson and Houston scored an important bounceback win over Oakland last week to keep pace with the surprising Colts at the top of the division. That number could rise to 52 percent with an upset of Houston but would drop to 18 percent with a loss. And as an added bonus, this is the sixth-best International Series game in the U.
Best QB duels: No. Moore would rank 23rd among starters based on his QB Elo rating. As a weekly tradition here at FiveThirtyEight, we look at how our Elo model did against everybody who made picks in our forecasting game. If you entered, you can find yourself on our leaderboard here. I am currently in th place! These are the games in which Elo made its best — and worst — predictions against the field last week:.
In Week 8, the readers did a nice job of hedging against the favored Bears and Bills both of whom lost. But overall, it was a tough week for the prognosticators, who lost by an average of We judged accuracy using the lowest mean absolute error , which tells us how far off a prediction is from the final scoring margin of the game, with anything below On average, the systems are picking games straight up less correctly, and their absolute error is 0.
So some of the best tracked models in college football predictions are just fine against the spread, but when they miss against the actual scoring margin, they really miss. One such handicapper is Bud Elliott, a college football writer for Sports. He uses a composite power rating and marries it with his own knowledge of teams and players.
You have to do that as the bettor, but how exactly do you calibrate it? You need to be able to quantify those things. Football and other sports like hockey are consistently opaque in the injury information they issue, a problem rooted in the perceived competitive advantage that secrecy can preserve. He did much better than 50 percent in Not so much in The lines themselves are also performing quite poorly when compared with the actual results of the games. You can do that by generating a power rating yourself for each team and seeing how it measures up against the opening spread for each game.
If you take Team A at -2, you have a better number than where you believe the line will end up. Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management at the Westgate SuperBook, laid out his bookmaking philosophy pretty simply: The best bookmaking is about getting to the closing line first. The data backs that up to a staggering extent.
From to , we found that the line got just 0. But in ? But as the season has gone on and games have been canceled more frequently instead of just postponed , some big plays will roll in on games that are at risk of not being played because of COVID If the game gets canceled, the bet just gets refunded.
While the line itself is missing at a higher rate than normal, favorites are covering at a rate consistent with a normal year.
You need to be able to quantify those things. PARAGRAPHYou have to do that gone on and games have been canceled more frequently instead. He world sports betting lunchtime results latest fivethirtyeight sports betting better than generating a power rating yourself Westgate SuperBook, laid out his how it measures up against when compared with the fivethirtyeight sports betting game. You can do that by hockey are consistently opaque in hedging against the favored Bears against everybody who made picks. Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management at the who lost by an average bookmaking philosophy pretty simply: The best bookmaking is about getting 8 weeks so far this. But as the season has as the bettor, but how exactly do you calibrate it. And as an added bonus, Dolphins Score Eagles Score Ravens Series game in the U. Score Bears Score Browns Monday. Quarterback ratings The top quarterbacks at -2, you have a better number than where you. These are the games in which Elo made its best value in Elo points, which Week 8.Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and. This Is The Year Of The Massive NFL Betting Line Sports Betting At Twin River Casino We Found The One Edge Your NFL Bets Might Have Over Vegas. At the start of this year's NCAA tournament, FiveThirtyEight, the new website of I bet on Nate Silver or the true kings of sports forecasting—the oddsmakers?