You can find these updated during the season early every week on their respective websites. It is important to ask yourself if you trust yourself more than companies that do this for a living. Even the best handicappers compare their power ratings in case they missed something. After you get your power rated number, you next have to look at things like injuries, individual match-ups, situational spots, and trends.
When it comes to injuries, it definitely matters who it is at what positions in order to deduct the appropriate amount of points for each sport. In football, it might take three starting offensive lineman to be listed as out in order to affect your power rating by 1 point, yet when it comes to quarterbacks, you may have to adjust your power rating by up to even 11 points depending on who it is. For example, Deshawn Watson over the last two years was worth 8 to 10 points to the line and that was made obvious when he didn't play.
When factoring in injuries, we also must remember to give back points depending on how good the backup player is to that position. Laveon Bell could have been a larger difference when he sat out for the Steelers last season if it wasn't for the good play of James Connor. Looking at individual match-ups is also very important to a handicap. You might have two teams power rated very closely together, but one of those teams might be great on offense and pass-defense but so bad against the run that they will rarely possess the ball and get clocked most of the game without being able to stop the other team that can rush the ball.
Looking at these match-ups may not only take you off of a play, but it also can swing you so much that you start to like the other side of the play betting on the other team. Remember that sportsbooks, just like you, also may have factored in the match-up adjustment to these lines so make sure to always question your number and compare your results with your sharper peers.
Situational spots are also very important to the handicap. The schedule is definitely something that cappers will adjust for. In Basketball, sometimes you will catch a team that played less than 2 days before and could be tired while the other team is rested.
In football, the Thursday night and Monday night games either give teams a shortened week or extra rest. In some sports, the rest may be so long that teams could come in rusty and it is always good to fade them in the first half. Travel is also very important. Cappers generally adjust anywhere from 0 to 3 points on the power rating depending on the team and the schedule spot.
Lastly, there is the look ahead and the letdown spots to factor in. The good handicapper would look to bet the dog in this spot. Finally, we need to look at trends. Maybe a quarterback has a history in playing bad in cold weather. Maybe there is a stadium that favors unders. Maybe there is a coach that always gets the best of a good team. Trends are hard to assign an actual number to but something you should at least pay close attention to. It is always best to ask yourself why when noticing a trend so that you can learn from it in the future.
The last way that I am going to discuss some handicapping techniques is the use of algorithms to come up with a final score. An algorithm pronounced AL-go-rith-um is a procedure or formula for solving a problem, based on conducting a sequence of specified actions. An everyday example of an algorithm is a cooking recipe. The ingredients are the data and the mixing with the baking is the mathematics. An algorithm is really nothing more than a function with changing variables.
Being that the match-ups and the stats differ from week to week, you will always get different variables and predictive values for the final score. Some of the stats used in the NFL are Yards per game on offense and defense, yards per point, penalty yards and more.
For basketball, some of the stats are team efficiencies on offense and defense and pace of play. I certainly like to use algorithms for totals predictions due to the use of pure numbers and statistics. I use algorithms for football and basketball, but I do rely a lot more on individual power ratings especially for betting ATS against the spread.
Remember when I said that those casinos didn't build themselves? It takes lots of people losing a lot of money to do this and as smart players, it is our job to beat these books. Don't bet on pure emotion and do not get sucked into stupid plays that favor the sportsbooks.
Many people like to play parlays because it is very fun to watch their money multiply by winning multiple bets. Betting a 3 game parlay pays in most books and people love to get that fat return. The problem with is that it isn't actually a good payout for what they are risking. Let's look at the math.
It is basically the same chances of flipping a coin three times in a row getting and heads every single time. Minus out your unit that you would be paid back 1 that you would make back and you are at 7. This means you should be paid at to accomplish this feat. Now don't get me wrong, parlays are FUN and even I play them from time to time such as during the NCAA tournament and college bowl games, but I do not bet as much as I bet a normal game and I only use a separate amount of additional discretionary income fun money.
Playing parlays to me is kinda like playing the power ball and should not be done often. Future bets, on the other hand, can be extremely profitable if properly played. I have seen books favoring a team at to win the national championship while others have it at Remember to shop these books and read up on them before you make your plays.
What I love about division, conference and championship futures bets, is that if you feel you know something more than the books and are correct, you can accomplish a massive payout. Another thing that I love about futures is the ability to hedge out of them.
Anyone with a Michigan future ticket in the NCAA Men's basketball championship would have been smart to bet Villanova at 15 times the amount of their Michigan play ;-. I also like to play season win totals. The sportsbooks will predict a total number of wins that a team will have for the season and we can either agree by not placing a bet or bet over or under in that total. Playing a season win total spreads out the variance throughout a whole season rather than one game.
When Clemson had that bad loss against Syracuse in , they still went in the ACC and cashed some nice over Always remember to check the strength of schedule when researching these plays. The downside to betting futures and season win totals is that the sportsbooks hold on to your money for the full season without paying interest.
If you are willing to make the investment, then make sure you are okay with them holding your money. Well that really depends on what kind of a situation you are in, but the general answer is no. In football, buying random points on or off of non-key numbers cost about 10 cents, but when you buy on or off of key numbers it can be as high as 25 cents such as the 3 and the 7.
We have to start at Looking at my chart from above, we can see that going from Take 4. So this would be meaning that it is worth 24 cents minus to buy a half point to Sportsbooks charge 25 cents for this move so you can see it is just barely not worth it to make this individual play. If you take the sample NFL chart from Sports Insights above you can get close to the same number by taking almost half of the Being that is just a sample, I am going to stick with the chart.
The few times that I can find it worth it to buy a half point off of a key number is if you are trying to middle when the math works out for you. I personally would rather just try and shop for a better number using multiple books from the information that you can get from reading reviews.
Another important thing to keep in mind is that college football has the same key numbers, but they are less impactful than the NFL because the variance in the spreads and final scores can range much farther making the standard deviation of the final scores much larger. Any questions??? Use multiple books people! Using multiple books allows for the best lines on each game!
Timing is huge when it comes to sports betting and betting stale lines will not lead to success. When you get good at this you can actually start to be able to predict the line moves and be a lot more strategic in your plays. Best practices are to make your bets right when the lines come out as well as right before the games start. Let's not kid ourselves here, sportsbooks are wrong coming out with a line plenty of times just like we all differ in our numbers and power ratings.
These books have to put lots of lines on many sports out every day while we can stay focused on one sport and even one conference. By placing your bets right when the lines come out, you have the early advantage to find weaknesses in the numbers and hit them before people catch on forcing the lines to move. Sportsbooks do not raise the limits into the figure range until the middle or end of the week for football. Even books know that they can leave themselves exposed to high limit openers.
They instead will let the sharper lower limit players make plays early thus creating more of an honest line due to the movement for the middle of the week. Mid-week is the time that you do not want to make your bets because in general, the lines have been adjusted correctly for the most part maybe a few might be missed. The next wait is for the general public to make their plays up to minutes to hours before the game to adjust the next line correction and hopefully open up some more plays for you to cash in on.
At this point, the sportsbooks do not even necessarily care if they are wrong on the numbers because they are mainly trying to just balance their action to profit on both sides of the lines. You can in most cases find some good numbers that were not there before by just waiting it out thus giving you an edge based on your expected values derived from the estimated odds in your power ratings. These line moves are also especially good for derivative betting first quarter and half-time when you know which teams start slow and which teams start fast.
These are the techniques and strategies that it takes to be successful in this business, and once you get the hang of it and play with discipline, you can become or remain profitable. Like I have stated before, sports betting and handicapping games is a marathon and not a sprint. If you feel that it takes way to much time to be successful, then there is no shame in purchasing plays from professionals if not only to compare them to your own numbers but to also profit off of those plays as well.
These Cappers will also tell you how they arrived at that play in many cases so you can learn from it in order to do some handicapping of your own in the future. Another less time-consuming way to have fun capping lines is to just focus on one division or conference and get really good at just handicapping that.
Try and make some friends who can focus on other conferences and have a meeting of the minds before each game and boom, you have your own betting syndicate! Try and remember some of the disciplines that I explained during this article and you will be able to weather the storm when it comes to bad streaks as well as reap the profits when it comes to good ones all while having a great time enjoying each game.
Should you have any questions, please feel free to tweet me theoddsbreakers. Have a fantastic time and go get some winners! For the BettingBuck. Additionally, odds data was collected for each sportsbook on over 1, bets to give each sportsbook a comparative odds ranking. If you spread your bankroll among several smaller bets, you are more likely to make a profit in the long run if you do the proper homework.
Remember, there are no locks in this business and any team can lose on any given night. And on the subject of chasing: Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day. If you didn't like the game before you lost your money, why would you like it after your losses?
Chasing bets is a losing proposition almost every time. If you are on a winning streak, increase the amount of your bets. Wins and losses often come in streaks, and it can be profitable to ride out a hot streak. Sports betting tip 2 - Shopping for Numbers The second most important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number.
There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.
When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority. And since the lines the bookmakers release are increasingly strong, the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss. Sports betting tip 3 - Never Gamble While under the Influence There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling. Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn't otherwise make.
To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window. Be sure to get set up with our weekly NBA picks for guaranteed winners each and every day. Sports betting tip 4 - Do your Homework As a bettor, you have the advantage of streamlining your research, which is something the sports books are not at liberty to do.
The best way to win money betting sports is to develop a niche and follow it closely. If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.
Sports betting tip 5 - Check the Odds Some sports books have better odds on parlays and teasers. When you are betting big bucks the difference in odds translate into a huge difference in your payout. All it takes is a little research of the sports books you usually bet at.
Most books have their payout odds listed in way that is easy for the bettor to find them. It should be noted that we advise against playing parlays and teasers for the most part. Especially anything over a 2-teamer. Sports betting tip 6 - Play Home Dogs There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home.
Teams play inspired ball at home. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd. Sports betting tip 7 - Bet at the Right Time The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early. Squares usually bet later in the day or week, for football and they tend to pick the favorites.
If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the Pros are laying heavy money on the points. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb. There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books.
Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you. There are many fine sports handicapping services available. Like a good stockbroker handicapping services can advise you where to invest your money in order to limit your losses and increase your winning percentage.
As with any industry there are the good and the bad.
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