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Clearly it would be very inconvenient if one unit of scrip were available — no one could babysit or go out twice in a row and no two couples could go out at the same time. Everyone would want more scrip, and the one holding it would not be very willing to spend it—this is what is known as a liquidity trap.
On the other hand, if there is too much scrip per capita, then everyone feels flexible enough and would prefer to go out rather than try to accumulate more. The co-op even passed a rule that everyone must go out at least once every six months.
The thinking was that some members were shirking, not going out enough, displaying the antisocial ways and bad morals that were destroying the co-op. Hence, this system of price controls means the inflationary pressure does not drive up the scrip-price of baby sitting, inflation is suppressed, and shortages are found. The co-op managers seem to have had little inkling that there would be an optimal supply of scrip in their organization and did nothing to ensure that the amount of scrip per capita which was created matched that which was destroyed each year.
Early in its history, the supply of scrip was too small and decreasing, and later it was too large and increasing. There at least two possible ways of dealing with a suboptimal supply of scrip: the supply of scrip per capita could be adjusted or the price of the scrip could be adjusted. If everyone has ten units of scrip worth an hour of babysitting, that is the same as if everyone had twenty units each worth half an hour.
Thus, if people felt as if they had accumulated enough scrip and preferred to spend rather than save it, the co-op board could require everyone to turn in some scrip or declare that each unit is worth less babysitting time.
There is not necessarily a single ideal supply of scrip that would work permanently because people will have different babysitting needs at different times, so there would have to be continual adjustments. The co-op, of course, operates as a centrally planned arrangement characterized by strict price controls. As long as the price is fixed, then the central board must meet to adjust the price as needed. However, he has utterly failed to show that the co-op is analogous to the American economy and, granting that it is a valid analogy, has failed to draw out its implications as a consequence of price controls.
The American economy is at least relatively free of regulation and could be made even more free. So in order to make the co-op into an analogy, Krugman would either have to argue that American recessions are caused by central planning, or that the Sweenys are incorrect in their economic analysis of the co-op, or that despite having different causes, American recessions have the same effects and cures as that of the co-op. He does not bother with any of that. The final result would be similar to one in which the central planning board had declared a price change, without any centralized decision being required.
Krugman has done nothing to show in his article that deregulation, rather than monetary policy, is a valid response to a recession. One might argue that he does not need to show that because ideas such as the liquidity trap are well established in economics.
But I still claim that his use of the babysitting co-op is a red herring which teaches nothing about Keynesian economics. Just imagine if, for some reason, we still had to pay 5, bitcoins for a pizza. Clearly this would cause a severe disruption to the Bitcoin economy. There would not be enough bitcoins to go around and bitcoins would be so inconvenient that no one would want to improve the bitcoin infrastructure.
That would be a very severe liquidity trap! But because the exchange rate of bitcoins is set by the market rather than fixed, nothing like this has ever been a problem. Now I let Krugman off the hook for disregarding deregulation as a solution, because that may not have been important to his audience or intentions with the article.
Gobry ought to provide evidence that his theory will apply in the future even though it has not in the past, but the way he deals with this problem is totally inadequate. At the time of this writing, demand for Bitcoin has gone up roughly , times, as measured by its price, since the day that two pizzas were bought for 10, BTC. Moreover this price increase corresponds to the growth of the Bitcoin economy. Yet there are now only about three times as many bitcoins that have been claimed as in those days.
Can that relatively tiny increase really explain economic growth by a factor of ,? These numbers are obviously way out of proportion, and I doubt that any similar multiplier effect has been observed anywhere else. The observed history of Bitcoin is very bizarre from a Keynesian perspective but far less so from that of the Austrian.
Why has no liquidity trap occurred? If Gobry wishes to show they cannot do this, he really ought to provide some evidence. Therefore the newly mined bitcoins should not be expected to have any effect on the Bitcoin economy to prevent liquidity traps. It has fixed supplies. HODL it like your life depends on it, because it definitely does.
Don't sell cheap. That's why the government hate Bitcoin and other blockchain-powered cryptocurrencies. But Bitcoin is growing faster. The next four years on this current path will bring Bitcoin user base to 1 billion people, which is the equivalent uses of for the Internet. It is not about replacing the current Fiat but making it better. You are sitting on a goldmine. Browse By Tag.
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