After many years fooling around with basic modelling, a few years ago took the leap and purchased a lot of literature and devoted a lot of time to it. There has been a lot of learning on my part and I have relished every opportunity that I have had to grow myself. I became successful with this particular model through applying some concepts that I had read about in papers and other research, and adapting them to how I thought they could be suitable in the NRL. After a few attempts and countless hours, I finally got to the very strong model I have now.
Simply put, I look for games where I disagree with the line and try to take advantage of that. I use the game data as opposed to the final score to assess the true performance of each team in each game. As any avid sports watcher would know, in no way does the best team on the field always win. Often the impact of a lucky bounce of the ball, referees decisions, or other factors can result in a team winning a match despite playing worse than their opposition.
I come up with my own line for each game and compare that to the market line to find value. I find that I have quite a contrarian approach to betting, and in my opinion this works very well. I back a lot of underdogs as I feel that these are mispriced. The market overrates favourites and underestimates underdogs.
Many who watch the NRL would iteratively know this to be true. Regularly the no hope team beats the hot favourite. A mixture of the salary cap, questionable refereeing quality, regular injuries and a number of other factors make the games a lot more variable than the market expects. In terms of what information I use for my analysis, I use a wide range of offensive and defensive metrics and use an algorithm to determine accurate team ratings on the back of these numbers. I am of the opinion that the market needs to regress its ratings towards the mean good teams are overrated and poorer teams are underrated.
With these numbers I create a line that the model projects as the true line that should occur if the one particular game was to be played out over a thousand times. I bet on the line market within the NRL. I have trialled the head to head market, however I have found that there is more market inefficiency in the line markets.
I strongly believe in not forcing bets. The POT represents and aligns with the overall mathematical edge the model has over the market in my opinion. More often than not the line closes in the direction that I bet beating the closing line value is clearly a positive indicator for the model. I take a different approach to betting that challenges the norms but is still realistic and protects against variance.
I will be making a write-up available for members on this. How did we validate the model? We reviewed the model and outputs in detail, noting the below: Table 1 showed bets placed, the round, the team backed, the closing line, the projected line for that team in that particular game, odds for my own recording purposes I use 1.
This clearly demonstrated that the model has beaten the closing line not just the opening line when there is more value the earlier that you bet. It uses the early rounds for data validation, as the use of pre-season trial games for teams is statistically insignificant.
Hence tips will start in Round 4. The live chat is ideal for people on the go who want real-time knowledge they can insert into their betting slip, but is only operational during their standardised hours, typically 9am to 10pm Eastern Standard Time.
The phone customer service gives punters who want the more personal touch the opportunity to speak to a real person in real-time. Note: due to live-betting legislation in Australia, it is only possible to place a live bet on a match over the phone. The phone service for all Aussie online bookies is 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and will be able to help you in every situation, including when the online site is down for maintenance.
World's Favourite Bookmaker Live Streaming. This is my table. Visit Bet The most popular method of deposit and is available on every Australian sports betting website. BPAY debts work exactly the same as you would pay a utility or phone bill. Notify of. Inline Feedbacks. Would love your thoughts, please comment. Visit Bet Bet Review. Best Odds Sportsbet. Home Ground. Betting review. Brisbane Broncos. Suncorp Stadium. Read Here. Canberra Raiders. GIO Stadium. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs.
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It sets up for a classic final, and we have a full game preview and This season is going to be unlike any other, which should make for interesting viewing. It also makes for an interesting betting market, which sees Novak Djokovic listed Betting markets are always wide-open for the women, and is no different. We look at Gallen has shown his chops in the ring, but Hunt has the massive experience edge. It will be an intriguing fight and we break the fight down and Sports betting is when you back yourself to predict the correct outcome of that sporting event or an outcome within that sporting event.
As usual, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash from our Rugby League expert, Scooby! Can the Storm advance into their fourth Grand Final in the last five years? Or will the Raiders get back into the big dance after falling agonisingly short last season?
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The Melbourne Storm are back in the finals once again after another impressive home and away season. In Week 1, they'll square off against the Eels on Saturday night and we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips here. We have a full preview and betting tips for the clash, courtesy of matta91, here.
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