A correlated parlay consists of two or more individual wagers accumulated onto one bet card where the odds of one of the wagers will increase if another wager ends up winning. An intuitive example of a correlated parlay is taking a team to cover the spread for the first half of a game and taking the same team to cover the spread for the entire game. The definition of correlated parlays above may seem too good to be true.
In fact, why would sportsbooks choose to accept correlated parlays if this significantly increases the risk that sportsbooks will get burned. Very rarely, sportsbooks will accept correlated parlays. Once the sportsbook catches on, chances are, your betting account will be closed.
But how much more likely is this? In the NFL, favorites covering both the first half and full game spreads occurred Additionally, in the NBA, favorites covering both the first half and full game spreads occurred Correlated parlays are available in other sports, but they are nowhere near as prevalent as they are in college football betting. We recommend regular college parlay betting before diving into this article. A correlated parlay is a bet comprising different bets that are closely linked together in terms of outcome.
Put simply, the two bets are correlated. It took online sportsbooks a bit longer to figure out that correlated parlays in college football offered a similar advantage. The total on the game is 73 points. By doing some quick division, we can divide 32 by 73 and come up with about The logic behind correlated parlays is straightforward.
Online betting sites took a beating about five years ago once bettors realized how profitably these college football parlays were. For one, college betting sites that accept correlated parlays may be extremely risky in terms of players being paid. These sites are not generally reputable. Also, even players do happen to place a correlated parlay, it might later be graded no action due to software error or bookmaker mistake. This situation played out for a bettor who placed a number of correlated parlays at WagerWeb.
Though the funds he deposited were eventually returned, the winnings made from his correlated parlay betting were ultimately voided. If any player manages to bet correlated parlays at an online sportsbook and wins a substantial amount, we fear the same thing may happen when it comes time for him to withdraw.
We cover the major difference between online sportsbooks and local bookies not the regulated markets of Nevada in our article on the differences between online betting sites and local bookies. We recommend bettors take most of their action online for a variety of reasons, but when it comes to betting correlated parlays, just about the only place to bet them these days is with locals.
Locals, on the other hand, have taken longer to adjust. There are many unsuspecting bookies across the country that are still unaware of how profitable these bets are and who continue to accept them. Ideally, one could be on both sides of the same game, which would equate to printing money, but only the dumbest bookie in the world would allow someone to do that.
However, if bettors had two solid locals, they could bet the over and the favorite with one local and the underdog and the under with the other. This is not possible for most.
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Very rarely, sportsbooks will accept correlated parlays. Once the sportsbook catches on, chances are, your betting account will be closed. But how much more likely is this? In the NFL, favorites covering both the first half and full game spreads occurred Additionally, in the NBA, favorites covering both the first half and full game spreads occurred From this historical data, the winning percentages are pretty staggering and it makes sense that sportsbooks tend to not allow correlated parlays to be placed.
Since a two-game parlay typically yields a payout of 2. Permutation betting is an interesting strategy to consider for advanced bettors. Top 5 betting sites. If a team covers the first-half spread of a game, how often do they also cover the point spread for the entire game? If you know the team that covers the first half line is more likely to cover for the game, you can parlay those wagers and make a killing, right? First things first, I want everyone to understand that I am aware that no online or Vegas sportsbooks that I know of allow correlated parlays.
You are looking to bet the first half and the full game on the same team. Either the favorite or the underdog. You can do both, but that will appear pretty obvious and likely to get you cut off sooner. We are going to use typical two-team parlay odds, which pay 2. In the first half, they are likely to be 3. Our bets for this game would be:. Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit.
This makes sense — otherwise, everyone would just win truck loads of money by betting parlays. The secret here is to increase our chances of winning the second piece of the parlay. Logic would tell us that they would, however, hard data is even better. In all of these situations, if the team covers the first half line, they are much more likely to cover the game line.
Your expected profit would be If bettors were allowed to wager on these, they would soon be out of business, as you are nearly guaranteed to make a profit over time with this method. I took a look at the four major spread sports and ran the numbers. I was trying to find any situations where if a favorite or underdog covered and the total hit more than Here is what I found. A field goal or more favorite covering means a record of just 1,, for the OVER However, stretch it out to double digits and when the favorite covers the over only went There is no magic number with percentages here either.
That makes sense. This makes sense. What happens when a big favorite is up at the end of the game? Both teams kill the clock and try to get out of there. Here is the data that I found.